TCPEP4 04:37:23.8004

NOTE: This is not to be used for life critical applications .  Please refer to official National Weather Service/NOAA websites and publications
----------300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
...DANGEROUS WILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 107.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES
 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours for Islas Marias, and within 12 to 18 hours for mainland Mexico. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 107.3 West. Willa is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north- northeast is expected later this morning, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias later this morning and afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico later afternoon or this evening.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is forecast today, Willa is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall tonight and continuing into Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).
 HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to 4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Las Islas Marias this morning, and beginning this afternoon along the coast of mainland Mexico. Tropical storm conditions are occurring on Las Islas Marias, and tropical storm conditions are expected later this morning along the coast of mainland Mexico.
SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days.  Swells should begin to affect portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
$$ Forecaster Stewart
---------- tags: weatherwire,weather,update