TCPEP4 22:32:22.0579

NOTE: This is not to be used for life critical applications .  Please refer to official National Weather Service/NOAA websites and publications
----------900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018
...POWERFUL WILLA EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 107.2W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north- northeast is expected early Tuesday, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias early Tuesday and make landfall within the hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is forecast tonight and Tuesday, Willa is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).
 HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to 4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and Tuesday.
SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days.  Swells should begin to affect portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
$$ Forecaster Brennan
---------- tags: weatherwire,weather,update