TCPEP4 13:36:49.3003

NOTE: This is not to be used for life critical applications .  Please refer to official National Weather Service/NOAA websites and publications
----------1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018
...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WILLA MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 107.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES
 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 107.2 West.  Willa is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today.  Willa is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias early Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts.  Willa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is still possible today. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, but Willa is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico.  The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft that was en route to Willa experienced a safety issue before entering the storm and had to return to base.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).
 HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday morning.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight and Tuesday.
SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days.  Swells should begin to affect portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
$$ Forecaster Brown
---------- tags: weatherwire,weather,update