TCPEP1 11:45:48.2018

NOTE: This is not to be used for life critical applications .  Please refer to official National Weather Service/NOAA websites and publications
----------900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018
Corrected to add the word hours in the first paragraph of Discussion and Outlook
...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
 SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista
The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later today.
Interests in the state of Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will move across the Sea of Cortez during the next several hours and then move over northwestern Mexico later today or tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression later today, and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico. Dissipation should occur on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station in the Port of Santa Rosalia measured a wind gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) as Sergio passed nearby. Guaymas, on the west coast of mainland Mexico, recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain.
Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread northeastward this morning.  Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are already reaching the coast of mainland Mexico.
SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
$$ Forecaster Avila
---------- tags: weatherwire,weather,update