TCPEP1 07:44:38.7436

NOTE: This is not to be used for life critical applications .  Please refer to official National Weather Service/NOAA websites and publications
----------500 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018
...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...
 SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 119.3W ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 119.3 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northeastward motion with a continued increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach mainland Mexico by Friday evening.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.
By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.  This rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in the Southern Plains.
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by tonight.  Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch area tonight or early Friday.  These winds could reach the coast of mainland Mexico by late Friday.
SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
$$ Forecaster Avila
---------- tags: weatherwire,weather,update