TCPEP5 01:45:29.0565

NOTE: This is not to be used for life critical applications .  Please refer to official National Weather Service/NOAA websites and publications
----------1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018
...CENTER OF ROSA NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
 SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 115.1W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe
Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 115.1 West.  Rosa is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed tonight and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area during the next few hours and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California.  Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula.  Rosa is expected to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL:  Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Wednesday morning:
Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.  On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area during the next several hours and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California later tonight.  Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.
Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.
Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain.
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in portions of the warning area, especially over higher elevations.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight and Tuesday morning.
SURF:  Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
$$ Forecaster Brown
---------- tags: weatherwire,weather,update