TCPAT1 17:19:27.7065

NOTE: This is not to be used for life critical applications .  Please refer to official National Weather Service/NOAA websites and publications
----------500 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018
...FLORENCE BECOMING AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES OVER THE CAROLINAS WHILE FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...
 SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 81.3W ABOUT 85 MI...125 KM WSW OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF HAGERSTOWN MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 WATCHES AND WARNINGS --------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across parts of far southern Virginia.
Flash flood watches are in effect for portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England.
 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 81.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some acceleration over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday as Florence transitions into an extratropical cyclone.  Some of the model guidance takes a segment of Florence southward offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast between Wednesday and Friday which forms a new low pressure area, which will need to be watched.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy to excessive rainfall over the next couple of days. Portions of the northern Mid- Atlantic states west of Interstate 95 into southern New York and southern New England are expected to receive an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain...with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.
For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html
TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes remain possible across eastern Virginia, eastern Maryland, southeast Pennsylvania, and Delaware for the remainder of the day.
 NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$ Forecaster Roth
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT  17/2100Z 39.0N  81.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  12H  18/0600Z 39.8N  79.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  24H  18/1800Z 41.7N  72.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  36H  19/0600Z 42.5N  66.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  48H  19/1800Z 42.2N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  72H  20/1800Z 41.1N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  96H  21/1800Z 42.7N  39.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H  22/1800Z 49.6N  27.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
---------- tags: weatherwire,weather,update