SKYWARN Partners,
An approaching upper level weather system will cause a surface low pressure
center to form and move across north Florida Saturday and Saturday night.
This weather system will place the central peninsula under a risk for strong
or severe weather Saturday through Sunday. Rain chances will be near 100%
across east-central Florida with the potential for heavy rain at times,
mainly from mid day Saturday through early Sunday. Rainfall totals are
expected to average 1-2 inches across east-central Florida, with
isolated totals of 3 inches. Given the dry ground conditions in most areas,
this rainfall is not expected to produce significant impacts – with temporary
ponding of water in poor drainage areas most likely.
Wind shear will increase as the storm system deepens over the Gulf of Mexico
and approaches the state, and this will likely allow a few embedded thunderstorms
within a large rain area to become strong/severe, with locally damaging winds,
large hail, and isolated/brief tornadoes possible. The severe threat will increase
during the late morning and early afternoon, and will remain elevated through the
afternoon/evening.
Overnight Saturday into early Sunday, a squall line may develop over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and move across the peninsula. The threat for damaging winds and
isolated/brief tornadoes will exist if this line of storms develops and moves
across the region.
At this time, the weekend is shaping up as follows:
Saturday- chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming
widespread by midday with heavy rain possible. Isolated strong to severe storms
may occur, although atmospheric instability may limit the coverage of storms.
Saturday Night- Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue, with
a strong to severe storms possible. A squall line may push through east central
Florida overnight.
Sunday- The potential for strong thunderstorms will continue during the morning
as the storm system lifts into the Atlantic and pulls a cold front through the
Florida peninsula. Cool and dry air aloft could bring large hail and damaging
wind gusts to the area, with the weather ending across all of east-central
Florida before sunset.
This will be the final email update as we expect to be very busy working the radar Saturday, however
you can follow the latest information upon the following links:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=HWO&node=KMLB
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/blog.php
Please be ready to activate Saturday-Sunday and report severe weather to the NWS Melbourne using
the Spotter phone number. You may also submit a website report via the following link:’
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=mlb
Thank you for your assistance, and stay weather-safe,
73,
Scott
KT4PD
WX4MLB
–
Scott M. Spratt
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Forecast Office
421 Croton Road Melbourne, FL 32935